March 09, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 9 2026
What we know
The South African Rand came under pressure last week, beginning and ending the period notably weaker against major currencies amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Early optimism for continued appreciation of the local currency faded quickly as emerging markets absorbed a sharp shift in global risk sentiment. Markets began positioning ahead of the possibility of further geopolitical escalation, following increased military activity and rising diplomatic tensions between several regional powers. These developments have contributed to a broader increase in global risk aversion.
Volatility dominated trading conditions throughout the week, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty rattling global markets. This was reflected in the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which remained resilient despite weaker-than-expected US economic data, highlighting continued demand for safe-haven assets during periods of market turbulence.
Commodity markets echoed a similar level of volatility. Gold prices started the week on firm footing but struggled to sustain the elevated levels observed in recent weeks. As a major commodity exporter and net oil importer, South Africa experienced a combination of adverse factors: softer commodity prices, rising oil prices, and a stronger US Dollar. This triple threat contributed to a weekly trading range of more than 80 cents in USD/ZAR, a level of volatility last seen in April 2025.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the US labour market remained a focus area for global investors. The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and unemployment data offered additional insight into economic conditions, with February employment figures falling short of expectations. However, the continued demand for safe-haven assets largely offset the negative implications of weaker data, helping sustain broader US Dollar strength.
Domestically, South African economic data had limited direct influence on currency movements, with global drivers remaining the primary determinant of the Rand’s direction. Nonetheless, local considerations such as the fiscal outlook following the February budget speech, ongoing energy supply concerns, and rising oil prices continue to shape investor sentiment towards the currency.
As a significant net importer of oil, sustained increases in global oil prices, particularly following today’s intraday surge of approximately 23%, could further constrain the Rand’s ability to recover lost ground in the near term.
What others say
Moneyweb – SA economy posts fastest growth in three years
“GDP expands 1.1% in 2025 as agriculture, finance and trade sectors lift output, while reform momentum raises hopes for stronger growth ahead.“
Axios – A world at war: Iran conflict goes global
“At least 20 countries are now militarily involved — shooting, shielding or quietly supplying — while a widening energy shock punishes nations far from the front lines.“
Reuters – South African rand falls to 3-month low as soaring oil prices spur inflation worries
“South Africa’s risk-sensitive rand started the week sharply weaker as investors, unnerved by surging oil prices and the potential effect on global inflation and growth, dumped risk assets and took profit on some of their best-performing trades.“
What we think
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain a key focus for global markets as investors assess whether tensions escalate further or begin to stabilise.
Should uncertainty persist or intensify, continued demand for safe-haven assets is likely to place additional pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Rand.
Simultaneously, sustained strength in gold and precious metal prices may offer partial support for the local currency, given South Africa’s significant role in global commodity exports. Strong investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk could provide a degree of structural support for the Rand.
However, any such support is likely to be tempered by a stronger US Dollar and elevated oil prices, both of which historically weigh on the local currency. In the near term, global macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are therefore expected to remain the dominant drivers of currency markets.
From a macroeconomic perspective, US inflation data releases will provide further insight into potential changes to monetary policy in the world’s largest economy. Recent spikes in oil prices will likely add inflationary pressures not previously priced in by global central banks.
USD/ZAR is consequently likely to trade within a relatively broad range as markets continue to digest geopolitical developments alongside upcoming global economic data releases.
Our range for the week: 16.30 – 16.75.
Have a great week ahead.