February 17, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 6 2026
What we know
Last week was an uphill battle for the Rand, while still managing marginal gains in a particularly range-bound week. USD/ZAR trading opened at a flat 16.00 after seeing 25 – 40 cent moves every day in the previous week. Last week’s trading started on a good footing, but the market was reluctant to pick a direction in the days that followed.
The Rand was less volatile across the board last week when looking at major Rand-based pairs. Of course, the market was holding its breath for the State of the Nation Address (SONA). Ramaphosa’s speech was underpinned by an air of optimism around improvements in infrastructure and economic recovery. While this was well received, there was still an element of over-promise and under-deliver when looking at issues such as unemployment.
The Rand weakened from its best levels last week leading up to SONA on Thursday, and the positive words did little to persuade the market otherwise throughout the remainder of the week’s trading.
Last week we noted an out-of-the-ordinary release of US employment figures, which came in surprisingly stronger at 130k, almost doubling the forecast figure. This followed a temporary government shutdown at the end of January. US inflation, however, came in fairly flat. Both releases play a pivotal role in monetary policy, as the Fed would be looking for a stable labour market and cooling inflation should it wish to resume the rate-cutting cycle in 2026.
What others say
Gavekal – Roaring Bokke
“As bond yields fell, equity markets went parabolic, more than doubling over the course of the year. Few would have had South Africa down as the best-performing equity market of 2025 on their bingo card.“
Visual Capitalist – Ranked: The Countries Buying (and Selling) the Most Gold Since 2020
“China, Poland, and Türkiye were the largest gold buyers among central banks between 2020 and 2025.“
Currency News – Why even the ultra-rich can’t leave money matters to AI
“Markets move fast, and AI moves faster – but without a buffer and a plan, even serious wealth can unravel when fear, family and volatility collide.“
What we think
Last week we said that, “The Rand has been notably sensitive to US monetary policy speculation. With this in mind, should the NFP result come in high on Wednesday, we will likely see a Dollar rally at the expense of gold and silver, ultimately causing a weaker Rand. Conversely, a weak jobs print would have the opposite effect.”
Considering a significantly higher NFP figure than the market expected, the Dollar did not find any significant support from this when looking at the Dollar Index (DXY). Despite the volatility that is expected around such a high-impact release, the DXY showed little improvement following the positive figure.
This week, we are expecting Fed commentary regarding the FOMC meeting, which will provide valuable insight into what can be expected for US monetary policy. The market is not currently pricing in a rate cut at the March meeting, and Core PCE price index figures on Friday could reinforce this should the higher forecast figure be accurate.
Locally, inflation data due on Wednesday will also provide insight into whether South Africa can expect a decrease in the repo rate at the next interest rate decision late in March.
Our range for the week: 15.75 – 16.10.
Have a great week ahead.