November 17, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 46 2025
What we know
The Rand performed well this past week, dropping below the psychological level of 17 against the greenback, levels we have not seen for over two years. The Rand’s gains were broad-based, extending beyond the Dollar to include the GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, and NZD.
South Africa’s local news last week was largely positive, highlighted by the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement delivered on Wednesday. During the review, the inflation target was reduced to a flat 3%, with a tolerance band of plus or minus one percentage point. This is down from the previous range of 3–6%. In addition, the government confirmed that it would keep debt steady at roughly 77.9% of GDP for 2025/2026 and gradually shrink the budget deficit from 4.7% to 2.7% by 2028/2029.
Unemployment data released on Tuesday showed an improvement from 33.2% to 31.9%. Although still high, the figure indicates clear progress. Adding to this renewed Rand optimism, S&P Global Ratings upgraded South Africa’s foreign-currency long-term sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB on Friday.
Turning to global news, the US finally emerged from its longest-ever government shutdown on Wednesday. While the dollar strengthened slightly on the news, its gains were limited by concerns over weak underlying data and an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
In the UK, the economy has been fragile, not just this past week but throughout November. The unemployment rate has risen to 5%, while the country’s GDP has slowed significantly, growing by only 0.1% over the past three-month period. Markets are anticipating a rate cut in December to revive growth. The Rand strengthened to 22.30 against sterling – again reaching levels not seen in over two years.
What others say
Reuters – S&P upgrades South Africa for first time in nearly 20 years as reforms gain traction
“South Africa on Friday secured its first credit rating upgrade in nearly 20 years after S&P Global raised the country’s foreign-currency long-term sovereign rating to “BB” from “BB-“, citing stronger growth prospects, an improving fiscal outlook and reduced contingent liabilities following better performance at state power utility Eskom.“
Business Tech – Good news about interest rates in South Africa
“The South African Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates next week, with further rate cuts anticipated in the future, given South Africa’s lower inflation target.“
The Guardian – Trump signs funding bill to end longest US government shutdown
“President signs bill to restart federal operations after House passes measure in 222-209 vote.“
What we think
Last week we said that “In the short term, the Rand is expected to hold its ground against the USD for as long as the US government remains shut down and risk-on sentiment prevails.”
As observed, the Rand held its ground despite the conclusion of the US government shutdown. The Dollar’s strength was limited, allowing the Rand to benefit from positive domestic news.
Next week will again be a news-heavy week, which could bring increased market volatility. Inflation data will be released by the UK, the EU, and South Africa on Wednesday. South Africa will also release retail trade sales on Wednesday and Business Confidence figures on Thursday, which are expected to decline slightly from 39 to 37.
Non-farm payrolls for the month of September are expected to be released on Thursday, with the October and November figures both scheduled for release on 5 December.
The Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday, and markets are anticipating a rate cut of 25 basis points. Meanwhile, South Africa will be hosting the G20 Summit from Saturday, where discussions among global leaders will focus on geopolitical tensions, growth, and global debt.
The Rand is expected to continue testing the 17 level against the US dollar in the coming weeks. If optimism continues to build as it has, markets may gradually become more comfortable with the 16 handle by year-end.
Our range for the week is 16.90 to 17.35.
Have a great week ahead.