November 03, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 44 2025
What we know
Having endured a fairly miserable 2025 (down 8% year-to-date and having touched its weakest level since February 2022), last week the USD Index (DXY) continued its relief rally off last month’s lows and came close to testing the 100 level for the first time since 1 August.
Since April, the vast majority of trade has been in the 97–100 range, against the backdrop of successive Fed rate cuts, general economic concerns, and trade policy uncertainty. As a result, despite cutting rates again, Jerome Powell’s comment that a cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion” was enough to take some steam out of the sell-the-dollar narrative. Whereas a week ago the market was pricing in a 95% probability of a cut, that has dropped into the 60% region.
With both the ECB and Bank of Japan keeping rates unchanged, the Fed’s comments were enough to push the USD stronger. We now await the Bank of England’s decision this week, with no change expected there either.
Locally, things remain very quiet, both economically and politically. Further froth continued to be removed from the gold market, and we’ve now pulled back almost 9% from the all-time high of USD 4,380. Given the extent of the recent rally, one would think this is a healthy pullback for a market due some consolidation. Nevertheless, it was good to see a much better than expected September trade surplus figure released on Friday, as the Rand continues to benefit from our gold and PGM exports.
What others say
Reuters – Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to reach $4,500/Oz by mid-2026
“Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the economic outlook remains uncertain.“
Moneyweb – US government shutdown pain spreads at one month
“The US government shutdown becomes painfully real for tens of millions Americans this weekend as it hit the one-month mark with food aid disrupted, cuts to child care kicking in, and health insurance premiums spiking.“
CNBC Africa – Standard & Poor’s May Upgrade South African Rating Next Month, BofA Says
““2025 looks set to be a stable year for the GNU (Government of National Unity), allowing it to push ahead with reforms,” the bank’s analysts said. “S&P could upgrade South Africa to BB in November 2025 on higher GDP growth and declining debt to GDP.”“
What we think
Last week we said “…following Wednesday’s decision, there will be one interest rate decision remaining for 2025, and the consensus appears to be for a decrease at all remaining meetings this year, reducing the rate by 50 basis points before year-end.”
As mentioned earlier, this consensus was swiftly upturned following Wednesday’s meeting, meaning the ultimate decision on 10 December will very much hinge upon the next few weeks’ data releases. Given less certainty surrounding the decision, we would expect exaggerated responses to any data points that veer significantly from consensus, which could in turn lead to a fairly volatile month for the USD.
Looking specifically at the Rand’s performance over the past while, it really has felt like a two-steps-forward-one-step-back scenario, as a strengthening trend punctuated by short periods of weakness has kept ZAR trading feeling very comfortable. Indeed, the past 31 weeks have seen 20 periods of gains against 11 losses, right in line with the 2:1 ratio!
Domestically, there is nothing of note on the horizon for this week, so all eyes will turn to next Wednesday’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement. Provided that passes without any negative surprises, there’s no reason to expect the slowly stronger grind for the Rand to change.
Our range for the week is 17.10 – 17.45.
Have a great week ahead.