October 13, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 41 2025
What we know
Last week, the Rand made some remarkable gains, delivering a powerful mid-week performance that was mostly driven by record-breaking gold prices. However, the week ended on a fragile note as trade tensions escalated between China and the US.
The Rand dropped to a low of R17.07 against the Dollar and sat comfortably below the psychological level of R20 against the Euro. Similarly, we saw the Rand at its strongest levels against the Pound Sterling since February, at R22.84.
With no major data releases during the week, market movements were mostly driven by sentiment. Amid ongoing global uncertainty, gold soared past the $4,000/oz level on Wednesday and reached a high of $4,058/oz.
The Rand has benefited not only from stronger gold prices but also from factors such as increased political stability and relatively attractive interest rates. In the midst of geopolitical tensions, South Africa’s relative calm has made the Rand more appealing to investors.
What others say
CNN – Trump announces 130% tariffs on China. The global trade war just came roaring back
“President Donald Trump announced he will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods from China, on top of the 30% tariffs already in effect, starting November 1 or sooner.“
Reuters – South African policymakers agree on lowering inflation target, timing still an issue
“South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Thursday that the central bank and National Treasury agreed that the country’s inflation target should be lowered but they were still discussing when to make the change.“
Moneyweb – EU pledges €11.5bn to fund South African energy, transport
“The European Union has pledged €11.5 billion ($13.3 billion) in investment in South African sustainable energy projects, transport and health sectors.“
What we think
Last week we said, “The US government shutdown has caused US sentiment to dwindle, which further impacted the USD last week as the Dollar Index fell from 98.18 to 97.46. As a result of the shutdown, the non-farm payroll figures, a crucial gauge of the health of the US labour market, were not released as scheduled.”
With the government shutdown continuing into its second week, key data releases remain on hold. Non-farm payrolls were postponed last week for a second time, and the new release date is yet to be confirmed. Meanwhile, it is hoped that PPI figures will be released on Thursday as scheduled. Given this uncertainty, the markets will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday, paying attention to any verbal cues for direction.
Despite the shutdown, the greenback managed to strengthen slightly during the week, with the Dollar Index nearing the 100 level. A resolution to the government shutdown could potentially provide additional support for the dollar.
UK unemployment figures are due for release on Tuesday, with UK GDP figures following on Thursday.
With volatility on the rise, predicting the market has become increasingly difficult. Given the past month of trading, and in the absence of market-moving data points due to the shutdown, we would expect the USD/ZAR to trade within its established range of R17.00 to R17.50.
Our range for the week 17.05 – 17.45.
Have a great week ahead.