October 08, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 40 2025
What we know
There isn’t a shadow of a doubt that the US economy, and the Greenback, is experiencing a tremendous amount of pressure currently. Last week reflected this, with the USD/ZAR opening at the high of the week at R17.35 and, by Wednesday, had reached the low of the week at R17.12.
The Fed has found itself in a position where it needs to balance further interest rate cuts with marginally rising inflation and has emphasised that timing will be the most important factor in its decision-making.
The US government shutdown has caused US sentiment to dwindle, which further impacted the USD last week as the Dollar Index fell from 98.18 to 97.46. As a result of the shutdown, the non-farm payroll figures, a crucial gauge of the health of the US labour market, were not released as scheduled.
Locally, things have been quiet. Between gold reaching all-time highs for the fifth consecutive week in a row, a weaker USD, and emerging market sentiment being fairly strong, the Rand managed to trade at the strongest levels since September last year.
What others say
Moneyweb – Are gold shares overdone, or is this just the start of a bull market?
“JPMorgan expects gold prices to average $3 675/oz by the fourth quarter of 2025 and climb toward $4 000 by mid-2026. That said, gold prices have exceeded most forecasts in 2025, so these projections could turn out to be conservative.“
CNBC Africa – South African rand steady as traders await updates on AGOA, US government shutdown
“The rand, often sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment, found some support after Trade Minister Parks Tau expressed optimism over the renewal of the U.S.’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).“
Reuters – Europe must resist temptation of easing bank regulation, policymakers say
“Governments in Europe are debating whether to follow the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back rules put in place after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, with some arguing that the regulatory burden is actually holding back investment, spending and ultimately economic growth.“
What we think
Last week we said, “Although the GDP figure overshot the expectation by a healthy margin, and considering the Fed’s comments regarding rate cuts, the majority of the market is still pricing in another two cuts later this year.”
Non-farm payrolls are scheduled to be released this Friday and are a key factor in the Fed’s interest rate decision, but as per the CME interest rate probability forecasts, there is a 95.7% probability that rates will be cut by 0.25% in the October meeting.
The FOMC will be having a policy meeting on Wednesday evening, which will give market participants a clearer idea of how the Fed plans to manage the current setbacks from the government shutdown.
Local data releases are few this week, and lately this has been playing to the Rand’s advantage. While we expect the current trend of the stronger Rand to continue, we cannot rule out the potential of US data releases leading to some short-term Dollar strength.
Our range for the week: R17.10 – R17.50.
Have a great week ahead.