February 03, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 4 2026
What we know
Last week, the Rand’s strong performance continued on the back of rising precious metal prices — that is, until metals plunged on Friday, causing a pullback in the Rand that wiped out the gains made throughout the week, with the currency closing at 16.13 at week end.
Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen a significant rally over the past few weeks. With metal exports being one of South Africa’s main export categories, this rise in prices is generally supportive of ZAR strength. On Friday, Gold lost close to 8% on the day, and the Rand pulled back by around 6%, coinciding with this move.
Major news last week came in the form of interest rate decisions from the US and Canada, as well as the SARB. The Fed and the BoC kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, followed by the same stance from the Reserve Bank on Thursday. The Fed had lowered rates in the previous three announcements, and with this pause, we will now need to see a further slowdown in either inflation or the labour market before additional cuts can be expected.
With regard to US monetary policy, as Powell’s term as Fed Chair draws to a close, Kevin Warsh has been nominated as his potential successor. Warsh has indicated that he would aim to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet, despite the fact that this would be an unlikely, or at least monumental, task. The ultimate goal of this would be to support further interest rate cuts.
What others say
Business Tech – D-Day for South Africa is coming
“The Senate may vote as early as this week on renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a program that has been key to boosting relations between sub-Saharan Africa and the US since its inception in 2000.“
Reuters – Gold heads for biggest daily gain since 2008 as investors step in after steep selloff
“Gold and silver prices rose sharply on Tuesday, with gold set for its biggest daily rise since November 2008, as investors snapped up the metals following their steepest two‑day slump in decades.“
AP News – Trump’s choice of Warsh to lead Fed could reshape the world’s most influential central bank
“President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve could bring about sweeping changes at a central bank that dominates the global economy and markets like no other.“
What we think
Last week we said, “This past week, the biggest driver of the Rand’s strength was rising commodity prices, with additional support from increased investor risk appetite as geopolitical tensions eased, all while inflation remained low and interest rates relatively high.”
TCommodity prices continue to support Rand strength despite the recent pullback. The Rand struggled following the dip in precious metals but appears to have stabilised once again around the 16.00 ZAR/USD level. ZAR/USD trading over the past few weeks has been highly volatile, with drastic price moves. Looking ahead, we would expect volatility to persist, with wide trading ranges, and until this subsides it will be difficult to determine clear directionality.
In the week ahead, attention turns to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, which is also expected to remain unchanged. Key news to watch this week includes US employment data, released on the first Friday of every month. Forecasts remain conservative, with estimates suggesting that 70,000 jobs were added in the prior month — only a slight increase on the previous month.
There has been no clear trend in recent releases, partly due to last year’s US government shutdown. Any outcome significantly above or below expectations is likely to result in heightened volatility to round out the week’s trading.
Our range of the week: 15.80 – 16.30.
Have a great week ahead.