MyCURRENCY News | Week 32 2025

What we know

We use what we call the ‘horizontal line’ theory, which focuses on identifying key areas of market support. When our only reference point is where the currency has traded in the past, and given how difficult short-term forex forecasting can be, we often rely on the idea that history tends to repeat itself. Last week, our key level was R17.67 to the Dollar and the market opened at R18.05/$ before trading to, and settling at, R17.67 as the low of last week.

In the absence of any major international news drivers, the Rand continued to put up a good fight against the Dollar. While we do not want to find ourselves getting too comfortable with the continuous Rand strength, it has felt as though whenever there is an absence of high-impact news, whether international or local, the Rand manages to etch out a gain in the current environment.

The only real ‘spanner in the works’ that was on the table, and is still a pressing issue, is the US tariff schedules and their implications for global markets. As South Africa faces a 30% tariff rate on US imports, this will impact our local markets significantly. As these impacts are not going to be instantaneous, it will be the stream of economic data releases to follow that will really highlight them.

The more impactful international release was the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Five members voted to cut rates, and four voted to keep rates flat, which highlighted the current global trend of not rushing to cut rates too quickly. However, as the majority rules, the BoE decreased its bank rate by 0.25%.

What others say

Voronoi – Trading on Thin Ice: Mapping Partner Dependence on the U.S. Market

“The contours of global trade order are being redrawn – not through multilateral consensus, but by unilateral action.“

CNBC – U.S.-China high-stakes tariff truce extension hangs in the balance as deadline looms

“U.S. negotiators, however, had put the ball in President Donald Trump’s court on prolonging the tariff truce. Trump, so far, has offered little indication on whether he will go for an extension, stoking concerns that tensions between the world’s two largest economies could rise again.“

Moneyweb – Kganyago says CPI near 3% seen yielding lower rates

“South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago expects the National Treasury and monetary authority to reach an agreement over a new inflation target, after his announcement last week that policymakers will now aim for 3% drew a terse reaction from the finance minister.“