January 26, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 3 2026
What we know
Last week was a significant one for the Rand, with multiple factors contributing to its strength. We saw levels not reached since July 2022, with the Rand strengthening to USD/ZAR 16.09 on Friday from Monday’s high of 16.48.
The Rand’s gains against the Dollar were driven not only by Rand strength, but also by a weaker US Dollar. Last Wednesday, at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Donald Trump removed tariff threats against several European countries. While the Dollar strengthened slightly following this announcement, it failed to sustain investor confidence amid concerns surrounding the Greenland threat. The Dollar Index fell from Monday’s high of 99.2 to 97.45, where it closed on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Rand rode the wave of strengthening precious metals, as well as a risk-on sentiment from investors as geopolitical tensions eased. Gold set new records, touching $4,990 per ounce last week.
Another positive for the Rand came from Stats SA’s CPI release last Wednesday, which showed that the average inflation rate in 2025 fell to 3.2% – the lowest level in 21 years.
Looking at the Rand’s performance against both EUR and GBP over the past week, the nearly identical graph patterns provide a clearer picture of the Rand’s true movements. The Rand moved to its strongest levels against both GBP and EUR on Thursday, reaching 21.66 and 18.86 respectively.
What others say
Business Tech – Best news in 21 years for South Africa
“South Africa’s inflation rate dipped to a 21-year low of 3.2% on average in 2025, with prices across the nation broadly in line with the new inflation target rate.“
The Guardian – Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship leaves leading Republicans rattled
“Donald Trump pulled back from the brink on Greenland but not before causing untold damage to the Nato alliance.“
News24 – Gold tops $5 000 in breakneck rally, as Trump stokes global fears
“Gold surged beyond $5 000 an ounce for the first time on Monday, extending a breakneck rally fueled by US President Donal Trump’s reshaping of international relations and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.“
What we think
Last week we said, “As we seem to have found some resistance around the 16.30 level and considering the Dollar strength given the current geopolitical climate, rising commodity prices alone will not be able to sustain Rand gains.”
This past week, the biggest driver of the Rand’s strength was rising commodity prices, with additional support from increased investor risk appetite as geopolitical tensions eased, all while inflation remained low and interest rates relatively high.
This morning, the Rand has already shown signs of further strengthening, pushing below the USD/ZAR 16.00 level alongside gold moving above $5,000 per ounce.
On Thursday at 3pm, South Africa will announce its interest rate decision. The expectation is for the repo rate to remain steady at 6.75%; however, markets are anticipating a cut later in the year if the inflation rate of 3% continues to be maintained.
The Fed will also announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday night, which is expected to be held at 3.75%. Producer Price Index (PPI) data is also expected to be released next week by South Africa and the US on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
The Rand has been steadily testing its strength. If interest rates remain in line with expectations and gold continues its rally, the Rand could potentially become comfortable below the 15 handle against the US dollar.
Our range for the week: 15.90 – 16.30.
Have a great week ahead.