July 21, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 29 2025
What we know
Most of last week’s trading was inside the trading range between R17.75 and R17.96 to the Dollar. Between Monday and Thursday, this established trading range held; however, the floor was broken on Friday and the market printed last week’s low at R17.65.
We’re big believers in the phrase ‘the trend is your friend’, especially in the currency markets, where trends can persist for long periods of time. Forecasting intra-day trends in choppy markets is incredibly tough to do (successfully) and while the bulk of last week’s trading was range bound, as it went, the trend continued on Friday as the Rand strengthened.
All US news drivers were released between Tuesday and Thursday, with inflation figures on Tuesday seeing a slight uptick to 0.3% (Month-on-Month), US PPI figures were released on Wednesday, and the result was below forecast at 0.0%, and Retail sales figures showed 0.6% growth compared to the prior -0.9% (Month-on-Month).
If we look at all the adversity that the Rand has faced this year: US trade policy, our local GNU scuffles, and South Africa’s international relations, all of this has largely passed, and the Rand has managed to stay steady, which indicates relatively strong sentiment for the Rand.
What others say
CNBC – Unraveling the legal, economic and market ramifications if Trump tries to fire Fed Chair Powell
“If President Donald Trump tries to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, it would almost certainly set off a courtroom battle that legal and policy experts say is bound to get messy, with uncertain impacts on the central bank, financial markets and the economy.“
Daily Maverick – Norway’s Stoltenberg lauds SA’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors
“The Norwegian finance minister said that despite their differences, the countries around the table had been able to agree on a communique ‘that sets out important principles’.“
Reuters – Oil prices edge down on expected minimal sanctions impact
“Oil prices were little changed on Monday as traders assess the impact of new European sanctions on Russian oil supplies while they also worry about tariffs possibly weakening fuel demand as Middle East producers are raising output.“
What we think
Last week we said…“The Rand’s strength against the US Dollar will be monitored closely, as escalating trade tensions with continued tariff negotiations are expected to take centre stage.”
G20 meetings took place throughout the week in Durban, with South Africa aiming to strengthen its trade ties as tensions continue to rise because of US tariffs. The outcome of these meetings is yet to be established; however, it’s clear that market participants responded optimistically, as the Rand strengthened across the board on Friday.
We have local inflation figures being released this week, which are not likely to be market-moving, as the market is strongly favouring one interest rate cut for the rest of the year.
As far as global data releases go, there is a range of Manufacturing and Services data being released from the EU, US and UK, and the market will keep a close eye on the EUR interest rate decision on Thursday.
As usual, market volatility should spike around key data releases, and any news drivers, local upsets, or geopolitical shifts will cause significant responses from the market.
Our range for the week: R17.55 – R17.90.
Have a great week ahead.