June 30, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 26 2025
What we know
Last week we saw the Rand strengthen against the Dollar, which was strongly driven by the dovish commentary from the US Fed. The Dollar Index spent the week comfortably below the 100 level, pushing towards 97 – levels we have not seen since 2022.
It was a significant week for the US, where the released figures did all the talking. On Thursday, the final Q1 GDP growth figure was released, showing a larger-than-expected contraction of -0.5%. Then on Friday, inflation data for May revealed that prices had risen more than anticipated, with the Core PCE price index coming in at 0.2%. With the current US interest rate outlook ruling out the likelihood of a hike in the near term, these higher inflation figures added further pressure on the Dollar, contributing to its weakness.
While the Rand seems to be doing better than the Greenback, the opposite trend has been observed against both the Euro and Sterling. Both graphs, EUR.ZAR and GBP.ZAR, mirror each other, as the risk-off sentiment continues to dominate investor behaviour. The Rand hit its weakest level of the month against both currencies on Friday as political tensions rose within the GNU, hitting 24.60 against Sterling and 20.98 against the Euro.
What others say
Reuters – U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites set up “cat-and-mouse” hunt for missing uranium
“The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear sites creates a conundrum for U.N. inspectors in Iran: how can you tell if enriched uranium stocks, some of them near weapons grade, were buried beneath the rubble or secretly hidden away?“
Business Tech – South Africa’s richest are heading for the door, taking billions of rands with them
“The latest Henley & Partners Wealth Migration report shows that South Africa continues to be a net loser of high net worth individuals (HNWIs).“
eNCA – ‘A waste of time’ – says DA as it withdraws from national dialogue
“The DA has decided to stay in the Government of National Unity. According to party leader John Steenhuisen, it is doing so in the best interest of South Africa. However, the party has withdrawn from the National Dialogue, describing it as a waste of time.“
What we think
Last week we said that “As was revealed, the increased geopolitical tensions moved investors further towards safe-haven assets, resulting in a further weakening of the Rand against the US dollar. This trend is likely to continue as there seems to be no apparent let-up in the ongoing conflict.”
The ceasefire was called between Iran and Israel on Monday, which came much sooner than anyone would have expected. On the back of this, we saw the Rand strengthen by roughly 30 cents to the Dollar during the course of the day, as emerging markets received a boost as a result.
There is growing concern within the GNU as DA leader John Steenhuisen has withdrawn from national dialogue after President Cyril Ramaphosa fired the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, Andrew Whitfield. This tension places renewed pressure on the Rand due to fears of policy gridlock or coalition breakdown.
- Economic releases in the week ahead include the following:
- South Africa’s trade balance for May being released on Monday
- ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, which would hold investor interest given recent tariff announcements
- EU flash estimate for annual inflation, also on Tuesday
- Non-farm payrolls from the US on Thursday due to the bank holiday on Friday
Our range for the week: 17.60 – 18.10.
Have a great week ahead.