June 19, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 24 2025
What we know
Last week’s Rand Dollar trading was relatively consistent and contained in a narrow range barring a large move on Friday, briefly reaching a high of 18.06. Despite starting the week at R17.77/USD and weakening all the way to the high of the week, Friday trading closed below the R18.00 round figure.
Very little local news affected the Rand last week and the first few trading days reflected a similar narrative to the last few weeks; a weak Dollar resulting in continued Rand outperformance.
In the early hours of Friday morning, geopolitical tensions returned to take centre stage as Israel launched attacks on Iran, targeting key nuclear sites. Despite current weakness, the Dollar remains a safe-haven asset as seen by the shift in flows away from emerging markets following the news.
Looking at global data, US inflation figures fell short of expectations but in-line with prior releases resulting in a muted reaction. Strong PPI figures resulted in some movement on Thursday but the Rand was able to stand its ground.
What others say
Reuters – ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says
“The ECB signalled a pause in policy easing this month despite projections showing price growth dipping below its 2% target temporarily on the strong euro and low oil prices, reviving worries that the ultra-low inflation environment of the pre-pandemic decade could return.”
CNBC Africa – Gold outshines Treasurys, yen and Swiss franc as the ultimate safe- haven
“Gold has claimed the safe haven crown. With spot prices surging 30% so far in 2025, bullion’s gains are outpacing that of other traditional safe havens such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. Treasurys — compelling investors to rethink what true safety looks like in the face of fiscal sustainability concerns and looming wars”
Business Tech – Foreigners spent over R1 billion to live in one South African city
“International buyers have spent over R1 billion buying properties across the Western Cape’s City of Cape Town.”
What we think
Last week we said that, “Should emerging market sentiment remain steady, and inflation figures released as expected, we should see the Rand continue its trajectory with the only caveat being PPI figures on Thursday.”
As it turns out, the caveat was geopolitical rather than economic and could not have been predicted. As emerging market sentiment remains mostly positive, we do expect the Rand to maintain this recent bullishness and continue its upward trajectory despite the recent blip.
Economic releases in the week ahead include numerous interest rate decisions, all of which will likely not move the market in any particular direction. The Fed, BoE and BoJ are all forecasted to keep rates unchanged. However, the comments around the monetary policy in these economies and future interest rate decisions will impact the market and may result in some rate fluctuation.
Our range for the week: R17.60 – R17.90.
Given the current global tensions, should the geopolitical situation escalate, we could well see the Rand breach R18.00/USD.
Have a great week ahead.