January 19, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 2 2026
What we know
The Rand started last week slightly on the back foot following a small market correction the week before. Last week’s trading opened at 16.46 and wasted no time trading back toward the 16.30’s, spending the majority of the week in a tightly bound range, before giving up some of the week’s gains to close six cents stronger than the start of the week.
With a lack of high-impact data, there was not much in the way of economic drivers moving the Rand–Dollar exchange rate. US inflation data remained fairly flat, with producer price inflation being the only real exception. The PPI figure came in at only 0.1% compared to the prior 0.6%. This is generally used as a good indication of future CPI, meaning we would see further consumer inflation cooling in the near future.
Geopolitically, US–Iran tensions took centre stage last week, while South Africa continued to engage Iran through inclusion in multinational naval drills. President Trump announced mid-week that he would not be taking action as yet and has adopted more of a wait-and-see approach. In the midst of this uncertainty, the Dollar has performed well on a broad Dollar index basis, as we would expect. The market seemed unfazed by South Africa’s geopolitical standing, as the Rand has remained strong in light of broad Dollar gains.
The Rand also performed well last week against the Euro and Pound, reflecting wider positive sentiment. This was also impacted by Trump’s announcement of tariffs on numerous countries in the European Union. A 10% tariff will be applied on 1 February and increased to 25% should the EU not be able to reach an agreement with the US by 1 June. This move comes in light of Trump’s pursuit of Greenland. This is unknown territory, and we will need to wait to see how the EU will respond. One possible course of action is to restrict access to European export markets.
What others say
EWN – WEF 2026: Godongwana leads SA delegation on investment hunt
“As the geopolitical and geo-economic landscape continues to evolve, global leaders are set to weigh the risks and opportunities when the World Economic Forum gets underway on Monday.“
BBC – Trump tariff threat over Greenland ‘unacceptable’, European leaders say
“A threat by US President Donald Trump to impose fresh tariffs on eight allies opposed to his proposed takeover of Greenland has drawn condemnation from European leaders.“
Reuters – Fed should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks, Bowman says
“Absent a clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, we should remain ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral.“
What we think
Last week we said that “Emerging markets have been receiving a boost from rising commodity prices, and should this trend continue, we may see further gains on the back of this.”
As we seem to have found some resistance around the 16.30 level and considering the Dollar strength given the current geopolitical climate, rising commodity prices alone will not be able to sustain Rand gains.
With Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and GDP data from the US due this week, this will provide further detail around the two expected rate cuts this year from the Fed. Should this remain likely, the Rand may find further momentum on the back of a widening interest rate differential.
Looking at the EU, the Rand could be expected to continue its gains against other major currencies in the coming month, depending on the action taken by the European Union, and the Rand may have room to capitalise on the uncertainty that this introduces to the market. The converse may also be true: the Rand may lose ground, with investors flocking towards the ‘safe haven’ Dollar in the midst of uncertainty.
We will also receive inflation and unemployment data from the UK, as well as an interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan.
Lastly, the World Economic Forum starting on 19 January will draw the largest number of global decision-makers to date, including President Donald Trump. Considering the recent tariff announcement and the targeting of Greenland, geopolitical tensions will certainly be on the agenda.
Our range for the week: 16.25-16.55.
Have a great week ahead.