MyCURRENCY News | Week 17 2025

What we know

Last week, the Rand continued to carve out a further gain against the USD, trading to ‘pre-tariff’ levels, and found some support around the R18.50/$ figure. Trading remained under the 19 handle all of last week, printing a high for the week of R18.90 against the Dollar.

As our government paused the proposed VAT hike — the main topic of discussion heading into last week — it raised a deeper concern: how it plans to address the budget deficit, especially since raising taxes is clearly not the solution.

As things stand, the market appeared to be fairly uninterested in the result of the VAT dispute, with the exchange rate almost unaffected; however, as the Ministry of Finance has now officially reported the cancellation of the proposed VAT hike, the Rand is trading stronger across the board.

The general uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies was still prevalent last week, and we can reasonably expect volatility to be sporadic and in line with any developments surrounding tariff and trade policy developments.

Overall, we had a quiet week in terms of news releases, with a variety of Manufacturing and Services data out of the US, EU, UK, and Canada, which resulted in a mixed bag across the board that didn’t provide any real insight into the state of the aforementioned economies.

What others say

Reuters – Fed at a policy, political crossroads poses global risks

“Global central bankers who have come to view the U.S. Federal Reserve as a source of stability now face an unpredictable period where the Fed’s monetary policy decisions are being pulled in conflicting directions and the institution’s independence could be at risk.”

Moneyweb – Economic uncertainty is now higher than it ever was during Covid-19

“These forecasts represent a substantial downward revision from IMF figures published just three months ago. Globally, growth in 2025 is down by 0.5% compared to the Fund’s January update, with a reduction of 0.2% for the euro area.”

CNBC Africa – Emerging markets are betting on a post-tariffs winner — and it’s not China or the U.S.

“Emerging markets have found themselves between a rock and a hard place amid an escalating trade war, seemingly forced to choose between China and the U.S. But there’s another way: they’re backing themselves.”