March 23, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 11 2026
What we know
It has been a tough week for the Rand, as global pressures have continued to weigh heavily on its value. The Rand fell to USD/ZAR 17.12 last Friday, its lowest level in over three months. There has been some resistance at the USD/ZAR 17 level; however, the currency pair continued to push through it throughout the week, closing at USD/ZAR 16.99. At the time of writing, it is trading at USD/ZAR 17.20, the weakest the Rand has been this year so far.
As the war in the Middle East continues to escalate, the ripple effect on oil supply is placing inflationary pressure on economies globally. South Africa is beginning to feel the first effects, with the price of petrol expected to rise by R5, alongside a potential R8 increase in the price of diesel. Central banks have had to respond cautiously through their interest rate decisions. Last week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank all kept interest rates flat, while the Reserve Bank of Australia increased theirs by 25 basis points.
In local news, the City of Ekurhuleni wrote off R2.24 billion in unpaid debt after unsuccessful attempts to collect outstanding municipal service payments from residents. This once again highlights the broader economic challenges faced by South Africa and will place further financial strain on public finances in the long term.
The Dollar has maintained its strength, with the dollar index managing to rise above the 100 level once again during the week. On the other hand, Gold has weakened significantly, giving the Rand little to no support. Gold has fallen to $4,149.80 to date, erasing all gains recorded this year.
What others say
Business Day – NICO MARAIS | Gold isn’t always a crisis hedge
“Gold is often treated as the ultimate crisis hedge. Yet in practice it does not always behave that way.“
Business Tech – Biggest petrol price hike in South Africa’s history coming next month
“The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices are now building for the single biggest jump in South Africa’s history, more than doubling the previous record.“
Visual Capitalist – Mapped: The Happiest Countries in the World
“To move away from the doom and gloom…“
What we think
Last week we said that, “With the SARB’s interest rate decision coming up next week, this week’s rate decisions from global central banks will help to inform the outcome. Forecasts have shifted from a likely reduction to an expectation that rates will remain unchanged, given geopolitical tensions that could cause an inflation shock which may warrant future increases in the Repo rate.”
The Rand is struggling to stay afloat as gold continues on a downward trend and investors move heavily towards a risk-off sentiment, amid the escalating war in the Middle East. With a sharp rise in fuel prices expected in the near future, it is unlikely that the SARB will be able to control inflation as effectively as it has in the past. In light of this, the SARB will likely keep interest rates flat at Thursday’s policy meeting, rather than reduce them as initially expected. It will be interesting to see how they plan to address these inflationary pressures and minimise the effects of the conflict on the local economy. Given these factors, the Rand is expected to remain fragile in the week ahead, with continued volatility.
On Tuesday, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash data will be released from the US and UK, giving investors the first indication of how the war and increasing energy prices might be effecting business activity. On Wednesday, inflationary data for the UK is expected to be released.
Our range for the week: 17.00 to 17.40.
Have a great week ahead.