March 16, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 10 2026
What we know
Risk-off sentiment remained the theme throughout last week’s Rand trading. Economic data, from which the market usually takes direction, had little impact, and sentiment was driven by news around the US–Israel conflict with Iran. Last week saw a wide trading range of just over 80 cents as a result of high volatility and uncertainty, causing big swings in ZAR/USD trading.
The main driver of this was the oil price, as this makes up roughly 15–20% of South Africa’s total imports. Over the past two weeks, the price of oil per barrel jumped from $69 to $120 and then back down again to under $100. The effect of this was large swings in the Rand–Dollar exchange rate, with the Rand losing more with the release of negative news than it could recover when there were signs of hope and small windfalls in the oil price.
The US Dollar continued to strengthen as investors flocked to safe-haven assets, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing back above 100, having recovered from a four-year low of 95 at the end of January. Stock markets also saw a sharp sell-off since the start of the war, on the back of the risk-off environment, and bond markets seem equally concerned. The shift in sentiment has led the Fed and other central banks to reconsider upcoming potential rate cuts, as the increase in energy costs results in increased inflation.
Inflation data from the US this week remained fairly flat, but investors will be monitoring upcoming releases closely for guidance on upcoming rate decisions.
What others say
Politico – It’s not just oil. Here comes Hormuz inflation
“The war with Iran is driving up more than gasoline prices. It is beginning to hit semiconductors, medical imaging, backyard gardens and even children’s party balloons.“
Visual Capitalist – The Entire Global Economy in 2026 in One Chart (GDP, PPP)
“This visualization shows the size of every country’s economy using PPP-adjusted GDP, making it easier to compare how national economies stack up around the world.“
Reuters – How the yen’s safe haven aura is fading
“The Japanese yen is one of the world’s pre-eminent safe haven currencies – typically expected to strengthen in times of market turmoil. So why has it performed so poorly in the face of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran?“
What we think
Last week we said that, “Should uncertainty persist or intensify, continued demand for safe-haven assets is likely to place additional pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Rand. […] From a macroeconomic perspective, US inflation data releases will provide further insight into potential changes to monetary policy in the world’s largest economy. Recent spikes in oil prices will likely add inflationary pressures not previously priced in by global central banks.”
This pressure was present throughout last week, despite the Rand finding some strength mid-week, especially as tensions flared with further attacks from both sides. Should inflation not remain controlled, the Fed may need to defer rate cuts that were expected in the short term until such time that inflation cools significantly enough to warrant further easing.
In the coming week, we do expect an interest rate decision from the Fed, although the rate is expected to remain unchanged. There are also interest rate decisions on the cards for many other central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, the BOE, the ECB and the RBA. The consensus indicates no change in rates, except for Australia, where rates are expected to increase.
With the SARB’s interest rate decision coming up next week, this week’s rate decisions from global central banks will help to inform the outcome. Forecasts have shifted from a likely reduction to an expectation that rates will remain unchanged, given geopolitical tensions that could cause an inflation shock which may warrant future increases in the Repo rate.
We expect that trading this week will remain driven by news developments around the conflict and anticipate a range of 16.70 – 17.30.
Have a great week ahead.