January 12, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 1 2026
What we know
The year has kicked off on a strong note as the Rand strengthened against the Dollar on market open and traded at a rate of R16.30 last week. The stronger Rand is being supported by rising commodity prices, Gold in particular, and a weak Dollar outlook.
While the Rand’s strength appears solid on the surface, the picture is more nuanced, as local economic growth was slow throughout last year and geopolitical factors that could drive volatility in emerging markets have taken centre stage.
Recently, the United States exercised its muscle by having the Venezuelan president (now de facto removed from power) arrested. The US then proceeded to host discussions with large oil producers on investment opportunities in the region and how the US could benefit from this. Should there be an increase in USD-denominated oil trade, this could prove to be a strong supporting factor for the Dollar.
A source of concern is the deterioration in US–South Africa relations and the uncertainty around their trajectory. Chinese and Iranian naval ships docked at South African shores for standard naval drills last week, which sent a very different signal to the US. This has been underscored by the US decision to abstain from joint naval drills with South Africa, which further questions our geopolitical alignment and positioning should tensions escalate further. Rising tensions in Iran, and the risk of a broader regional escalation, add another layer of geopolitical uncertainty, particularly considering South Africa’s recent engagement with Iran.
Last Friday, unemployment figures and non-farm payroll data from the US were released. The results were a mixed bag, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.6% to 4.4%, and fewer jobs added to payroll than expected, as 66,000 was forecast while the actual figure was 50,000.
What others say
Moneyweb – Why is the rand so strong and the economy so weak?
“The rand strengthened nearly 13% against the US dollar over the past year, yet the domestic numbers remain weak. That disconnect won’t last forever.“
Reuters – Dollar dips, gold at record high as US prosecutors target Fed’s Powell
“The dollar and Wall Street futures dropped and gold jumped on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over the refurbishment of the central bank’s headquarters.“
CNBC – European defense stocks close higher amid geopolitical tensions
“Global markets have been focused on rising geopolitical tensions this week after the U.S.′ deposing last weekend of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and then threats to seize Greenland.“
What we think
As the Rand continues its bout of strength into the new year, markets are focusing on the geopolitical landscape, which is at the forefront of longer-term outlooks.
The current US interest rate climate is of interest, and market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting, with forecasts of one to two cuts in 2026.
Emerging markets have been receiving a boost from rising commodity prices, and should this trend continue, we may see further gains on the back of this.
This week, we have the first US inflation release for the year, with forecasts largely pointing to inflation remaining unchanged at 0.3% (Month-on-Month) and 2.7% (Year-on-Year).
As the year progresses, we hope to see sustained local growth and Rand strength to support this.
Our range for the week: R16.30 – R16.70.
Have a great week ahead.