February 23, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 7 2026
What we know
Last week saw the Rand trade within a relatively contained range, opening the week stronger against the greenback. Despite this early strength, the local currency gradually weakened as the week progressed, with USD/ZAR reaching a high of 16.22 before drifting back toward the 16.00 level into the weekly close.
This movement occurred alongside broader US Dollar strength, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trend higher against major currencies throughout the week.
Locally, inflation data released on Wednesday was broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation levels remain within the SARB’s target range. While this provides reassurance from a monetary policy perspective, the release had limited impact on the Rand’s direction, allowing global drivers to remain the primary influence.
Commodity prices remained relatively well supported throughout the week, particularly gold, which continues to provide structural support for commodity-linked currencies such as the Rand. However, this support was partially offset by broader US Dollar strength, limiting the local currency’s ability to sustain meaningful gains.
On the international front, the US Supreme Court rejected the current set of tariffs imposed by President Trump. Although the ruling has not thus far had any effect due to the subsequent announcement of new tariffs.
Overall, last week reflected a continuation of the consolidation phase observed in recent weeks, with USD/ZAR remaining anchored near the psychological 16.00 level as markets await further clarity on global monetary policy and economic conditions.
What others say
Reuters – Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s global tariffs
“The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs… handing the president a stinging defeat in a landmark ruling… with major implications for the global economy.“
Epsilon Theory – There Can Be Only Two
“Behaviour changes first, narratives later, and by the time a new story becomes widely accepted, the system beneath it has already moved on.“
Neal Fun – Size of Life
“Just as the interactive ‘Size of Life’ visualisation takes you from microscopic strands of DNA to colossal living organisms, the forex market spans a staggering range — from tiny shifts in basis points that can trigger big reactions, to sweeping macro‑economic moves that reshape entire currencies.“
What we think
Last week we said that, “the market was holding its breath for the State of the Nation Address (SONA)”.We find ourselves in a similar position this week as we await the South Africa budget speech on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for credible signs of progress amid serious domestic fiscal setbacks. An evasive speech will undermine constructive efforts to address local challenges weighing on the country’s economic progress.
This week, markets shift their attention to several US economic releases that may provide further clarity on inflation dynamics and the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, both key drivers of US Dollar strength and, by extension, USD/ZAR movements.
US consumer confidence data scheduled for Tuesday will offer insight into the resilience of the US consumer, which remains a critical pillar of economic growth in the world’s largest economy.
This will be followed by the second estimate of US GDP on Thursday, which will provide an updated view of economic growth.
Friday’s Core PCE Price Index release is a particularly significant event, given its role as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. This release is closely monitored by policymakers and market participants alike and may play an important role in shaping expectations around the future path of US interest rates.
Additionally, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may provide further guidance on policymakers’ assessment of inflation and economic conditions, which remains a primary driver of US Dollar sentiment and broader currency market positioning.
In the absence of other major domestic economic releases, the Rand is expected to remain primarily influenced by external developments, particularly movements in the US Dollar Index, commodity prices and shifts in local and international investor risk appetite.
Our range for the week: 15.80 – 16.30.
Have a great week ahead.