February 09, 2026
MyCURRENCY News | Week 5 2026
What we know
Last week, the Rand continued its volatile run, moving by more than 50 cents against the US Dollar. Once again, it mirrored the fluctuations of precious metals: as gold and silver prices rose and fell, USD/ZAR tended to follow suit. The Rand weakened to USD/ZAR 16.42 but managed to recover most of its losses by the end of the week, closing at USD/ZAR 16.03.
In the US, non-farm payrolls were scheduled to be released last Friday but were postponed due to a partial government shutdown towards the end of January. The government reopened on 3 February, and NFP is now scheduled for release on 11 February. This lack of clarity regarding labour market trends appeared to further support the US Dollar.
The biggest news locally was John Steenhuisen’s withdrawal from the DA leadership race, effective April 2026. This leadership shift introduces a degree of domestic political noise, and although it is not yet a primary market driver, any perceived instability within the GNU could weigh on investor sentiment and limit Rand gains.
Overall, markets adopted a more risk-off stance during the week. While overall sentiment remains mixed, the pressure on the Rand was noticeable.
The Bank of England held rates steady, as expected, but the vote was close at 5 – 4, indicating that a rate cut in the future is likely.
The UK is also dealing with its own political tensions, with Morgan McSweeney resigning on Sunday as Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid controversy over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to the United States.
What others say
Sky News – Starmer battling for survival after his chief of staff resigns
“Sir Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival as calls for him to step down grow, after the resignation of his top aide over the Peter Mandelson scandal.“
Voronoi – Gold Has Overtaken the U.S. Dollar in Central Bank Reserves
“For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries (U.S. debt) in their reserves, marking a historic turning point in global reserve management.“
eNCA – SA needs stronger growth, expert says ahead of SONA 2026
“Iraj Abedian, Chief Economist at Pan-African Investment Research Services, says the President’s goals sound “warm and fuzzy,” but the real challenge lies in implementation.“
What we think
Last week we said, “ZAR/USD trading over the past few weeks has been highly volatile, with drastic price moves. Looking ahead, we would expect volatility to persist, with wide trading ranges, as long as this is the case, it will be difficult to determine clear directionality.”
The Rand has been notably sensitive to US monetary policy speculation. With this in mind, should the NFP result come in high on Wednesday, we will likely see a Dollar rally at the expense of gold and silver, ultimately causing a weaker Rand. Conversely, a weak jobs print would have the opposite effect.
In addition to the release on NFP data, the US will also be releasing the following:
- Retail sales for December, 10 February
- Existing home sales for January, 12 February
- Core inflation data for January, 13 February
The UK will be releasing their GDP data for quarter 4 on Thursday, which is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%.
Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the State of the Nation address on Thursday. South Africa will also release gold, mining, and manufacturing production data on the same day. Investors will be watching both for an indication of the local economy’s health.
With a news-heavy week ahead, volatility is likely to continue as markets digest the latest data and find their footing. While commodity prices may continue to support the Rand, US data is expected to exert pressure.
Our range of the week: 15.95 – 16.45.
Have a great week ahead.