October 20, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 42 2025
What we know
The Rand held its ground last week, dancing a cautious two-step as it was swayed by sentiment and nudged by commodity movements within a narrow range. With few significant economic or financial indicators released, the Rand traded relatively steadily against the US dollar, fluctuating between 17.25 and 17.49.
The Rand slipped to its weakest level of the week on Tuesday after Statistics South Africa reported a 0.2% decline in mining output for August. However, it regained some strength later in the day as data showed that business confidence had risen to 121.1 in September. This improvement was supported by stronger tourism and export figures, as well as higher precious metal prices during the month.
Further support for the Rand came from surging gold prices, with gold once again pushing higher to reach $4,380 per ounce.
With the absence of any major international developments, and the ongoing push and pull between risk-off sentiment and robust commodity prices, the Rand ultimately showed little clear direction over the week.
What others say
Business Tech – The rand should be R7 to the dollar
“South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago says the rand is incredibly undervalued, with studies showing that the rand should be around R7 to the dollar.“
Engineering News – Rising business confidence reflects optimism in South Africa’s energy sector
“The Energy Council of South Africa welcomes the rise in business confidence to 121.1 in September, as reported by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Business confidence is at its highest level this year and up from the 120 index points recorded in August.“
Reuters – Shutdown could cost US economy $15 billion a week, Treasury says
“The two-week-old federal government shutdown may cost the U.S. economy as much as $15 billion a week in lost output.“
What we think
Last week we said, “Given the past month of trading, and in the absence of market-moving data points due to the shutdown, we would expect the USD/ZAR to trade within its established range of R17.00 to R17.50.”
While last week was relatively quiet, activity is expected to pick up during the final two weeks of the month. In the week ahead, South Africa will release its inflation data on Tuesday, which market participants will be watching closely as it remains a key driver of the South African Reserve Bank’s policy decisions. The Bank continues to focus on maintaining inflation at manageable levels, with expectations for the figure to rise marginally from 3.3% to 3.6% year on year.
Inflation data from the United States is also scheduled for release on Friday, although this remains uncertain due to the ongoing US federal government shutdown, with no clear indication of when it might reopen. Nevertheless, most market participants anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting later this month.
The United Kingdom will also release its inflation rate on Wednesday, which is expected to edge higher from 3.8% to 4%.
Meanwhile, trade talks between China and the United States are expected to resume, hopefully bringing some calm to the storm. However, a definitive resolution still appears distant, though any meaningful progress could have market-moving implications.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the US government and the lack of a decisive shift in local sentiment, the Rand is expected to remain range-bound in the week ahead.
Our range for the week: 17.10 – 17.50.
Have a great week ahead.