July 07, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 27 2025
What we know
In a week that included a US public holiday, the Rand extracted all the value it could from the greenback over the four trading days. The Rand gained ground against the Dollar on four of the five days last week, with only the 4th of July – the US holiday – seeing the Rand lose ground.
As the Dollar remains weak, the Dollar Index (DXY) took another hit last week, dipping below 97 on Monday and remaining around that level throughout the week. On the public holiday, as President Trump had the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ passed, the DXY lost the ground it had gained the previous day, with the primary stressor being the expected impact on US debt levels.
Amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, as the market awaits the finalisation of details around US tariffs, there has been no clear indication of how the market will respond. However, market participants appear to be favouring emerging markets over the traditionally safe-haven Dollar.
Turning to the economic data from the week, US jobs figures printed marginally stronger than expected, with 147,000 new jobs added to the payroll, alongside an improvement in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
Globally, the Eurozone also released YoY inflation figures, which printed only marginally higher than the same time last year at 2%.
What others say
Reuters – Fed independence, US rule of law at risk, UBS reserve managers survey says
“The results highlight growing concern around the safe haven status of the world’s No. 1 reserve currency and biggest bond market given U.S. President Donald Trump’s confrontations with longstanding allies over trade and security, and his attacks on the Fed.“
CNBC Africa – South African president says national dialogue will continue without coalition partner
“The Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-biggest party in the coalition government after Ramaphosa’s African National Congress (ANC), pulled out of the process last week after Ramaphosa fired a deputy minister from the party. The DA stopped short of leaving the governing coalition.“
BBC – Trump calls on US central bank head to quit immediately
“Trump nominated Mr Powell to be the Fed chair during his first term. Since then, he has repeatedly criticised him for not cutting interest rates but it is unclear whether the president has the authority to remove him from the post.“
What we think
Last week we said that “There is growing concern within the GNU as DA leader John Steenhuisen has withdrawn from national dialogue after President Cyril Ramaphosa fired the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, Andrew Whitfield.”
As the GNU seems to remain intact for now, the DA are still not willing to engage in dialogue while President Ramaphosa waits for a new candidate to be presented by the DA.
Following a difficult week for the Dollar, there is room for it to recover some of those losses this week, provided there is no further news that undermines its strength. With minimal local news influencing the ZAR, trading is likely (as is true to form) to take its direction from the Dollar’s movements.
We also expect to see a reduction on interest rates from the Royal bank of Australia bringing their cash rate down to 3.6% from 3.85%.
Our range for the week: 17.50 – 17.95.
Have a great week ahead.