March 24, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 12 2025
What we know
Last week saw range bound trading for the Rand, spending most of the week between the 18.00 – 18.20 level. In a week loaded with interest rate decisions, all of which resulted in no changes to base rates, market volatility remained subdued.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank’s MPC announced its decision to keep the repo rate at 7.5%. This followed local inflation data released on Wednesday, which remained steady at 3.2% while the one-year inflation outlook hints that we may see this figure coming down further. Bearing in mind the 3 – 6% target for inflation, there could well be further interest rate cuts in the future to move closer to the 4.5% midpoint.
In international markets, most central banks opted to keep interest rates unchanged last week. The outlier being the Swiss National Bank, which has been aggressively cutting rates. This is the fifth consecutive decrease as policymakers attempt to reduce inflows to the Franc.
What others say
Business Tech – A nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa
“Eskom has added a nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa by adding 800MW of new capacity to the national grid.”
Sky News – Tens of thousands of jobs on South Africa’s citrus farms at risk if US imposes tariffs
“As tensions heighten between the South African government and Trump’s administration, this vital export may never land on US soil.”
What we think
Last week we said… “The market is likely to be on high alert this week due to a surge in data releases. Interest rate decisions are scheduled for the US, UK, Switzerland, Japan, and South Africa, alongside the release of local inflation figures.”
Despite the volume of interest rate decisions, the market remained muted due to the absence of changes to base rates.
This week’s key data releases come from the US, with GDP and Price Index figures, and from the UK, focusing on inflation. UK inflation is expected to drop below 3% following the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates unchanged, as it continues working toward its 2% target.
As the Rand continues to ride the wave of Dollar weakness, a relatively soft forecast for USD GDP could allow further Rand gains this week.
Our range for the week: 17.90 – 18.35.
Have a great week ahead.