April 14, 2025
MyCURRENCY News | Week 15 2025
What we know
The USD.ZAR had a wide range last week, starting off at its strongest level of 19.08 on Monday and weakening to 19.92 on Wednesday. This was followed by a sharp pullback on Wednesday afternoon, where it has since been trying to find its new level.
The Rand’s continued weakness on Wednesday was due to the 30% tariff imposed by the US. This, alongside the possibility of the GNU collapsing, increased the Rand’s risk. The Rand strengthened later in the day on Wednesday, following Donald Trump’s decision to pause these tariffs for 90 days.
While the Rand has weakened against the Dollar, we have seen an even greater weakening against the EUR and GBP. The Rand reached its all-time weakest levels against the Euro and Sterling last week – 22.14 and 25.46, respectively. The Rand has fared relatively well against the Dollar when compared to the Pound and Euro. This comes off the back of the Dollar reaching its weakest levels since 2022.
Overall, the Rand has weakened substantially against most major currencies, but its efforts to regain some ground have not gone unnoticed. Provided we can keep our government together, keep the imposition of tariffs at bay, and maintain electricity supply, we can begin to be hopeful – although rebuilding investor confidence may be slow.
What others say
Business Tech – Surprise twist for interest rates in South Africa
“With a recession in the United States now seen as a baseline, economists anticipate some drastic interest rate cuts to follow later in the year – with the same possible for South Africa.”
Reuters – Back to Russian gas? Trump-wary EU has energy security dilemma
“More than three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s energy security is fragile.”
News24 – Petrol, diesel prices may still get cheaper – despite rand crash
“Oil prices are under pressure as the risk of global recessions will weigh on fuel demand, but a shock OPEC+ decision to raise production also contributed.”
What we think
Last week we said, “As the DA teeters between leaving and staying, the Rand continues to lose ground day after day. With markets already taking a knock following last week’s news, a decision by the DA to leave the GNU will likely further erode investor confidence.”
The ANC, DA, and Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus) met on Saturday to discuss a way forward for the GNU after their failed attempts to find common ground on Fiscal Policy. They have still not been able to reach an agreement on the VAT increase; however, both the DA and FF Plus have stated that they want to remain members of the GNU.
The Rand has been slowly gaining some ground against the Dollar and has finally dropped below the psychological level of USD.ZAR 19.00 – the first time it has reached this level since 4 April.
Our Range for the week: 18.90-19.50.
Have a great week ahead.