October 31, 2022

Currency News

MyCURRENCY News | Week 44 2022

MyCURRENCY News | Week 44 2022

What we know

Last week we waited diligently for the release of our MTBPS, and in the run up to the event we saw the ZAR bulls take a hold and push the Rand down to the now tantalising sub-R18/USD level. Though, this was not the case for long as we only briefly touched the support level of R17.90/USD after the speech before withdrawing back above R18.00/USD to where we are now at +-R18.30/USD.

Our MTBPS delivered last Wednesday was no knight in shining armor, nothing lavish or too kooky, and looks to have laid a solid base on which we can build going forward. This is of course a welcome development as grand gestures and promises have for long fallen on deaf ears – investors want to see the results and aren’t interested in having sweet nothings whispered into their ears. SARS’s tax collection surprised to the upside, thanks again due to a higher than anticipated inflow from SA’s corporates – most notably the mining sector. There is still the elephant in the room, Eskom’s R400bn debt, which has been tabled for February’s main budget speech.

The Euro did finally start to recover from its fall from grace last week, with it momentarily trading above parity against the USD. The Ukrainian counter offensive is wreaking havoc and the Russians are suffering some of their worst casualties to date. Unfortunately, it seems that the EUR may suffer further this week as more funds flow into the USD after Russia reneged on a deal allowing Ukrainian grain shipments to leave their ports and travel the Black Sea unmolested.

What others say

Daily MaverickMini budget – Economic growth forecasts remain dire, casting doubt on debt reduction targets 

“South Africa’s road to “fiscal consolidation”, to use the term of art, is strewn with gaping potholes. The biggest one is the economy’s inability to grow at a sufficiently brisk pace to boost revenues while bringing the debt ratio to gross domestic product lower.“

ReutersRussia rains missiles on Kyiv, other cities after pulling out of grain deal

“Russia and Ukraine are both among the world’s biggest food exporters, and a Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain shipments caused a global food crisis earlier this year. Following Russia’s announcement that would halt cooperation with grain exports, Chicago wheat futures jumped more than 5 percent on Monday.”

IB TimesUkraine army kills 1,500 Russian soldiers in two days; 75 armored vehicles destroyed

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine have killed at least 1,500 Russian soldiers in the war over the weekend, bringing Moscow’s military death toll to over 71,000 since February, according to Kyiv’s Ministry of Defense.”

What we think

The USDZAR is still trending higher with us unable to break strongly below R17.90/USD last week. The current geopolitical environment too, does not inspire confidence and so the likelihood of the ZAR staging a retaliatory surge seems slim at present. 

There is a sprinkling of data out this week which will keep things interesting. SA has its balance of trade out this afternoon as well as our PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) tomorrow morning.

The big release will be of course the US Non Farm Payrolls this Friday afternoon. Expectations are for a slight decrease from last month and so any growth will bolster the USD.

Our range for the week: R17.95/USD – R18.50/USD.

Have a great week ahead.